The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has alerted about a unique weather phenomenon unfolding over the southeast Arabian Sea, which is expected to have a profound impact on the onset of the monsoon along the Kerala coast.
According to the Met Office, a low-pressure area is currently developing in the southeast Arabian Sea and is projected to strengthen significantly within the next 24 hours. This development holds critical implications for the advancement of the monsoon towards Kerala, as reported by the news agency PTI.
Additionally, the IMD has forecasted that this low-pressure system will gradually move northwestward and intensify into a cyclonic storm. Interestingly, the storm has been named Cyclone Biparjoy in Bangladesh.
Providing further details, the Met Office shared in a bulletin that the depression is currently situated approximately 920 km west-southwest of Goa, 1,120 km south-southwest of Mumbai, 1,160 km south of Porbandar, and 1,520 km south of Karachi, Pakistan. These geographical coordinates were recorded at 5:30 am on Tuesday.
The bulletin further stated, “It is likely to move nearly northwards and intensify into a cyclonic storm during the next 24 hours over east-central Arabian Sea and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea,” according to PTI.
Although the IMD did not provide a specific date for the arrival of the monsoon in Kerala, private forecasting agency Skymet Weather predicted a tentative onset on either June 8 or June 9. However, it foresees a subdued and gradual arrival, stating that the monsoon entry is expected to be “meek and mild.”
Skymet Weather also highlighted that the presence of these powerful weather systems in the Arabian Sea hinders the progress of the monsoon inland. While the monsoon may reach coastal regions, its penetration beyond the Western Ghats is likely to be impeded. PTI quoted Skymet as saying, “Under their influence, the monsoon stream may reach coastal parts but will struggle to penetrate beyond the Western Ghats.”
Previously, Skymet had predicted the onset of the monsoon over Kerala on June 7, with an estimated error margin of three days.
